Kerr: Stafford stands up to the recession

We all know just how serious the national economic situation has become. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product, the sum of everything we buy, invest and consume, is down over six percent. 

Unemployment is over 8 percent and nationwide, home foreclosures, mostly due to the mortgage crisis have topped 2.2 million. That’s all rather staggering information, but what about closer to home? How has Stafford County been faring during this economic storm?

The answer is better than most people realize. However, that’s tinged with the realization that we aren’t unscathed. A year ago unemployment in Stafford was 3.2 percent. That’s considered low enough to be below the 4 percent level most economists feel represents “frictional” unemployment. In other words, unemployment caused by people making job changes or otherwise voluntarily being out of work for a short time. Above 4 percent, by rule of thumb, is where the situation is considered more serious. This year unemployment in the county reached 5.6 percent. While cause for concern, it’s the highest we’ve seen in 20 years, that’s not as bad as the rest of the country. In March the national unemployment level reached 8.5 percent and in Virginia it edged up to 7 percent. So, all in all, we’re doing rather well.

Perhaps one of the most noticeable signs of the recession is in housing foreclosures. This is when the mortgage holder, following the failure of the homeowner to keep up with their payments, takes over the house. For a family, it usually represents a complete financial meltdown and is just about as bad as things can get. Prince William County, to our north, was by far the hardest hit county in the Commonwealth when it came to foreclosures with 7,600 homes being listed as foreclosed. Stafford, by comparison, has just over 1,000 homes at some stage of the foreclosure process. Perhaps an equally large number are short sales. This is where the family is selling below the amount they owe and hoping the bank, figuring this is the best deal they can get, will settle for less to let them out of the mortgage. There are some encouraging signs however, in that according to some local real estate agents I’ve talked to, investors, looking for a quick turnaround, and new entrants to the housing market, are starting to buy these distressed properties. That’s good for the county too. When a home is in foreclosure, no one is paying any taxes on the property.

There are, however, according to the Stafford County Economic Development Office, some encouraging signs. While the housing market may be in distress, and unemployment somewhat higher than last year, the number of new businesses entering the county remained surprisingly strong. In 2008, even as the recession was getting underway, the number of businesses in Stafford County increased by 113 for a total of 2,238 business in operation. That’s a strong base.  But most importantly, it’s generated good paying jobs. Stafford County ranks third in the Commonwealth when it comes to growth in wages.

Countywide, the number of people employed, “at place,” in other words, working in Stafford, is nearly 35,000. However, just as a footnote, that doesn’t mean the people employed in these jobs all live in Stafford. But, it’s nonetheless a sign of a healthy economic base. The leading sectors include business and professional services, health care, information technology, and government employment. However, as much as this number has been growing steadily for years, it’s expected that it’s going to stabilize for the next couple of years and likely see little if any growth. 

Stafford is, in spite of the national economic crisis, seems to be doing surprisingly well. While not unaffected, foreclosures and short sales being the most worrisome signs, unemployment has stayed comparatively low. One of the reasons for this is our proximity to several large economic engines. Namely, the Federal Government in Washington, as well as the large military bases at Fort Belvoir, Quantico, and A.P. Bill. Add to that the FBI Academy and Dahlgren, all with stable payrolls, and that’s a good starting point. 

However, other commuter communities haven’t done quite as well, and one of the reasons, is that they haven’t had a sustained program to support economic development. Stafford, however, has always, going back nearly 30 years, been focused on growing its own economic base. This has been challenging. Finding a way to get businesses, whether small or large to locate in the County has taken some aggressive marketing. And sometimes the county has been criticized for its efforts in trying to grow its own base. However, right now, as Stafford seems to be successfully surviving the current economic crisis it looks like a commitment that was well worth the effort.

David Kerr is a former member of the Stafford County School Board. Reach him at .